US imports at major US ports during 2020 are expected to see their lowest total in four years as the impact of the Covid crisis hits the economy, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
"The economy is recovering but retailers are being careful not to import more than they can sell," said NRF vice president Jonathan Gold.
"Shelves will be stocked, but this is not the year to be left with warehouses full of unsold merchandise. The more congress does to put spending money in consumers' pockets and provide businesses with liquidity, the sooner we can get back to normal."
US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.61 million TEU in June, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 4.9 per cent from May, but down 10.5 per cent year on year.
July was estimated at 1.76 million TEU, down 10.2 per cent year on year. August is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 7.3 per cent; September at 1.69 million TEU, down 9.5 per cent; October also at 1.69 million TEU, down 10.4 per cent; November at 1.59 million TEU, down 5.8 per cent and December at 1.56 million TEU, down 9.6 per cent.
Those numbers would bring 2020 to a total of 19.6 million TEU, a drop of 9.4 per cent from last year and the lowest annual total since 19.1 million TEU in 2016. The first half of 2020 totalled 9.5 million TEU, down 10.1 per cent from last year.'
August is expected to be the busiest month of the July-October "peak season" when retailers rush to bring in merchandise for the winter holidays.
But with retailers ordering less merchandise, the month's total would be the lowest peak for the season since 1.73 million TEU in 2016 and falls far short of the 1.96 million TEU peak in 2019. Peak season usually includes the busiest month of the entire year, but this year that was likely January's 1.82 million TEU."This year, peak season seems to have been thrown off by Covid along with just about everything else we consider normal," Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said. "We've probably already had our busiest month. And with the pandemic taking a hit on the economy ever since then, peak season is likely to be a disappointment by comparison."
Global Port Tracker covers Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville and Houston.